BDSA projects global cannabis sales to reach $61 billion by 2026

By 2026, BDSA forecasts that global cannabis sales will surpass $61 billion, a compound annual growth rate of more than 16% from 2021.

According to BDSA’s (Louisville, CO) most recent five-year rolling market forecast update, global cannabis sales for 2022 will reach over $35 billion, an increase of about 22% compared to 2021 sales of $29 billion. By 2026, BDSA forecasts that global cannabis sales will surpass $61 billion, a compound annual growth rate of more than 16% from 2021.

“Though most legal cannabis markets saw sales soften in the second half of 2021, the global cannabis market is expected to see brisk growth in 2022, driven by strong sales in new and emerging markets in the U.S., steady growth in Canada and international markets lead by Mexico and Germany,” said Jessica Lukas, chief commercial officer at BDSA.

In 2021, new U.S. legal cannabis markets experienced among the strongest growth. This was particularly true in the Midwest, where cannabis sales in Illinois grew approximately 70% in 2021, reaching a total of $1.8 billion. Missouri’s medical-only cannabis market reached an unexpected high of $210 million.

Emerging markets are expected to be a major driver of sales growth through 2026, as there will be fewer non-legal states. In the U.S., BDSA projects that sales will surpass $28 billion in 2022, with 20% growth compared to $24 billion in 2021. By 2026, legal cannabis sales are projected to have a compound annual growth rate of 14% to reach $46 billion. California is expected to remain the largest contributor to overall sales growth in the U.S., but emerging markets like New York, New Jersey, Florida, and Michigan will be the next top four contributors of sales growth by 2026, says BDSA.

In Canada, legal cannabis sales reached $3.8 billion in 2021, and are projected to reach $4.7 billion in 2022. By 2026, says BDSA, sales should reach $6.3 billion, a compound annual growth rate of 11% from 2021. This growth is expected to be spearheaded by Ontario, projected to growth over $1.3 billion by 2026. British Columbia will also contribute significantly, added $420 million to total sales by 2026.

Internationally (outside U.S. and Canada), legal cannabis sales, including cannabis-derived pharmaceuticals were extimated at $1.4 bullion in spending ifor 2021, and are forecast to growth to $2.2 billion in 2022. By 2026, BDSA projects that international sales will reach $9.5 billion, a compound annual growth rate of $6% from 2021. The bulk of this new spending will be driven by Germany and Mexico, says BDSA, but France and U.K. will contribute significantly as well.